Voter ID

Several days ago, my twin sister and I spent a three hour layover at the Philadelphia airport. This got me thinking about the 33 Republican states that are in the process of passing Voter ID Laws, which require all citizens to carry a government issued photo ID to the poll. According to Attorney General Eric Holder, only 8% of white voters lack photo ID compared to 25% of black voters. As of today, http://www.gallup.com/poll/politics.aspx states that 87% of blacks will vote for Obama while only 37% of whites will support the President. Do the math.

Policies like this make me angry- the nominal incentive is to decrease voter fraud, yet in some states only ten legitimate cases of fraud have been reported in the last decade. DECADE I repeat. A Republican governor- I forget which state he leads- had a fit of candidness and openly admitted that these laws (if upheld by the Supreme Court) will deliver Pennsylvania to Romney in the general election.

A 2008 ruling by the Supreme Court ordained Voter ID legislation just. This precedent would make it easy for the five right of center justices to uphold the status quo. Both parties have and will continue to use these tactics unless a burst of sanity is electroshocked into Washington.

Nate Silver of the New York Times always delivers ingenious analysis; here is his take on the laws:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/15/measuring-the-effects-of-voter-identification-laws/

Here is another good New York Times story on the case:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/20/us/politics/tougher-voter-id-laws-set-off-court-battles.html?_r=1&hp

Checks and balances

Political Animals

Last night, USA Network launched a series called Political Animals that documents the life of a fictional Secretary of State and her family- by and large an allegory of the Clinton dynasty.

I highly recommend it. If you like the West Wing, watch it, but don't expect its dialogue to surpass the wit of Aaron Sorkin. In any case, the show illustrates the pros and cons of leading a successful life in the political spotlight, and casts a riveting tale of female dominance in a male playing field.

Girl power. 

*** PLOT SPOILER ***
Sigourney Weaver, who plays Secretary of State Elaine Hammond, confides her wish to run for President again to a secret service agent. Hillary 2016?? I'm thinking yes!

It's not just Democrats...

who are pressuring Romney to release his tax returns. Look at what these leading Republican figures have to say:

"There's obviously something there, because if there was nothing there, he would say 'Have at it'"

- Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for Bush-Cheney '04 campaign, on ABC This Week

“I do not know why, given that Mitt Romney knew the day that [John] McCain lost in 2008 that he was going to run for president again that he didn’t get all of this out and tidy up some of his offshore accounts and all the rest,”


- George Will, newspaper columnist, on ABC's This Week

"He should release the tax returns tomorrow. It's crazy...You gotta release six, eight, 10 years of back tax returns. Take the hit for a day or two."


-William Kristol, Weekly Standard columnist, on FOX News Sunday

“If you have things to hide, then maybe you’re doing things wrong,”


- Alabama Governor Robert Bentley speaking at the National Governor's Association

Path to Prosperity or Decline?: The Ryan Budget

A few months ago the Republican controlled House passed Congressman Paul Ryan's idea of a budget plan, idealistically titled the "Path to Prosperity". The plan never passed in the Senate, but nevertheless addresses some core policy problems facing the country:

• reforming the complex tax code
• reducing the deficit
• reducing debt as a share of the economy
• reforming Medicare 

How did the CBO calculate this? 

This comes with lots of hidden assumptions...

1. Medicare

• Ryan claims that annual healthcare spending per household has increased fiftyfold since 1960 ($520/household) to 2012 ($25,300/household). Do these estimates account for inflation? 
• 10,000 baby boomers are added to Medicare everyday (wow- not good!)
• This screenshot of a House Budget Committee YouTube video accurately illustrates the status quo:

(Taxpayers give money to Medicare, Medicare reimburses providers, providers give care to patients.)

• The status quo disregards the quality of provider care
• Ryan ensures no changes for citizens 55 years or older
• This screenshot from the same video shows how the Ryan budget would enact patient-centered medicare where patients choose from a host of competitive providers, theoretically lowering costs and increasing care

• Poorer recipients receive more federal support while wealthier recipients receive less- a fair maxim

2. Tax Reform

• Reduces the corporate tax rate to 26% 
• Lowers the "individual rate that small businesses pay" to 23%
• Reforms the tax code to be "competitive, fair, and simple"
• Divides tax code into two brackets: lower bracket taxed at 10%, upper bracket taxed at 25%
• Big Problem: Offers no solutions to close/fix existing loopholes

Problems:

Paul Krugman

"And when I say fraudulent, I mean just that. The trouble with the budget devised by Paul Ryan, the chairman of the House Budget Committee, isn’t just its almost inconceivably cruel priorities, the way it slashes taxes for corporations and the rich while drastically cutting food and medical aid to the needy. Even aside from all that, the Ryan budget purports to reduce the deficit — but the alleged deficit reduction depends on the completely unsupported assertion that trillions of dollars in revenue can be found by closing tax loopholes."

~New York Times

Ezra Klein

"That’s a lot of numbers. But it’s also clarifying. The big cut here isn’t to health care for old people, though that gets the headlines. It’s to health care for poorer Americans. The biggest category of cuts is “everything else,” which shrinks to implausibly low levels, and Ryan, to my knowledge, has never detailed, even in broad strokes, how he gets it that low. But since he’s opposed to further defense cuts — he in fact raises spending on defense in the next 10 years — it seems inevitable that the non-defense side of “everything else” would have to shrink considerably, and that means cutting quite a bit from income supports and veterans’ benefits and infrastructure.

Then there’s the whole question of where Ryan gets the $6.2 trillion he’ll need to fill the hole in his tax plan."

~Washington Post

http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/man-plan_648570.html?page=3

This is an interesting article on Paul Ryan- obviously biased, but interesting nonetheless. His politeness is certainly respectable. Expecting to write a post that dissects his fiscal plan. 

http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/campaign-altogether-old_648556.html

Also, another Weekly Standard article that grazed my attention ^. William Kristol is always nice to see on the news, he has a steady demeanor and upbeat vibe. Interesting how he wants to see a hypothetical President Romney do something as revolutionary as FDR. 

Welcome to my blog! As a political wonk and enthusiast I enjoy breaking down what's going on in Washington. This blog will serve as a platform to voice my personal views but also contrast opinions held by both sides of the aisle.

First item of business: Who will Romney choose as VP?

Condi seemed like a good way to get rid of negative publicity surrounding Bain- no way Jose  she'll be on the ticket.

What an elegant face! Paul Ryan would fortify Romney's  economic credentials and offer the Romney team a viable and clear fiscal path to sell to voters. The Congressman's plan, which cuts heavily on entitlements and lowers tax rates into two distinct brackets, would also appeal to the conservative base. 

Rob Portman would certainly give Mittens an advantage in Ohio- a critical swing state. Downsides: he advised Bush junior and is the antithesis of crowd-exciter.

Paws, on the other hand, has name recognition from the primaries and a stellar record in Minnesota. Although Minnesota runs consistently blue in the generals, Paws would counterbalance Mittster's blatant eliteness. After all, he was the son of a truck driver and attended a state university. Downside: antithesis of crowd pleaser as well.

Other potential veeps: Governor Jindal, Governor McDonnell, Senator Marco Rubio. 

My guess: Either Portman, Ryan, or Pawlenty. Dullness at the podium is not necessarily a problem considering the tragic failures of Palin 2008. Let's see how this plays out! The Romney team said a candidate will likely be chosen and publicized this upcoming week.